On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine after amassing troops on the Ukrainian border. Four years and 1.2 million casualties later, the war continues to rage. And now, the war in Iran opens up new possibilities and perils for Russia, Ukraine, and the United States.
Dr. Daniel Kempton, professor emeritus of political science at Franciscan University of Steubenville, told Drew Mariani that the war has not changed much in that time period. “The territory goes back and forth,” he said. Kempton explained that at the beginning of the war, Russia conquered around 26% of Ukrainian territory; the Russians now hold around 21%.
Ukrainian Strength
Despite Russia’s size advantage, Ukraine has not given up the fight. “Whatever you think of Zelensky in other ways,” Kempton said, he’s shown “a very effective and in some ways [an] unprecedented show of leadership…in the Ukraine.”
Kempton says Zelensky’s ability to rally the Ukrainian people is an effective counter argument to the Russian narrative that the “Ukrainians are really Russians.”
Western Assistance
The Ukrainian resistance has also been bolstered by a consortium of Western assistance — including the United States and other NATO member nations. Since the start of the war, the United States has spend $188 billion supporting Ukraine — at least $70 billion of which has come in the form of military support, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
Now, instead of direct aid to Ukraine, the United States has been selling arms to NATO, which in turn, gives them to Ukraine.
Since President Trump took office, the relationship between Presidents Trump and Zelensky has ebbed and flowed. Last year, in a now famous Oval Office meeting, Trump, Zelensky, and Vice-President Vance, engaged in a heated on-camera argument. And just last week, Trump referred to Zelensky as “PT Barnum” in a Truth Social post.
Peace on the Horizon?
Despite strained relationship between the Trump and Zelensky, the Trump Administration has been engaging in high-level peace talks with Russia and Ukraine for over a year. Steve Witkoff, the US’s Special Envoy, and top peace negotiator, posted on X last week that “Discussions remain ongoing, with additional progress anticipated in the weeks ahead.”
As to what peace will ultimately look like, Kempton told Drew Mariani that he does not believe Ukraine would give up “the 20% of its land that it has lost.” Until Russia drops its demands for conquered land, “I don’t think we’re into serious negotiations,” he said.