“Overpopulation is now the dominant problem in all our personal national, and international planning.” Those foreboding words were written in 1968 by Paul Ehrlich, former professor of Population Studies at Stanford University. His book, The Population Bomb, sparked international fear about overpopulation. Almost 60 years later, a new problem has captured the attention of many – low fertility.
Declining Birth Rates
Population bust is both a national and international problem. The United States currently has a fertility rate of 1.66 births per woman. Yet the replacement fertility rate, or the rate “at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration,” is about 2.1 births per woman.
The global fertility rate as of 2021 was 2.4, down from about 5 in the 1960s. It is currently on pace to get even worse. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), “Over the coming decades, global fertility is predicted to decline even further, reaching a TFR (total fertility rate) of around 1.8 in 2050, and 1.6 in 2100—well below the replacement level.”
Some countries are predicted to be worse than others. “The TFR in Western Europe is predicted to be 1.44 in 2050, dropping to 1.37 in 2100,” according to IHME, while South Korea is projected to be .82 in 2100.
Sub-Saharan Africa
Despite a slowing fertility rate, several sub-Saharan African countries are still above replacement. IHME estimates that “more than half of livebirths” will be in sub-Saharan Africa. By 2050, Niger is estimated to be the highest fertility in the world at 5.15 with Chad at 4.81. However, estimates have Niger shrinking to 2.15 by 2100.
Is low fertility a Problem?
Population declines and low fertility present many economic and social challenges. In America, an aging Baby Boomer population puts a strain on the already compromised social safety nets, Medicare and Social Security. Countries without young people are less dynamic. “Patents filed by the youngest inventors are much more likely to cover breakthrough innovations. Older countries—and, it turns out, their young people—are less enterprising and less comfortable taking risks,” according to The Economist.
Low-fertility rates can also reduce social capital. One negative consequence of fewer children in general is that when parents age, they won’t have as many siblings or children to care for them. “Multiple research studies show that people who are integrated socially and have a broad array of relationships, including relationships with family, have better health and longevity,” according to the Social Capital Project.
Solutions
Last winter, a group of like-minded pro-birth thinkers hosted an event called the Natal Conference. One of the speakers, Peachy Keenan, told Drew Mariani, “We’ve got to get people to have more babes. And so that’s really what it was about.”
Another speaker, Kevin Dolan, told Politico that contemporary society is hostile to family formation. The “default middle-calls ‘life path’ offered by our educational system and corporate employers” is “in obvious competition with starting a family.”
Many, then, propose making family formation more affordable through policy solutions like expanding the child-tax credit. Others suggest re-Christianizing countries to improve birth rates, where religion trickles down to the rest of the culture.
At the very least, having one more child might save civilization.
Listen to Peachy Keenan’s conversation with Drew here.
