One of the potent questions of the AI era is: what will happen to American jobs? With the rise of technologies like Chat GPT4 and Tesla’s Optimus robots, many Americans are concerned about the future of the labor market.

Job Disruption

Some economists think AI will have a positive impact on jobs. One study from economists at the Bank of Italy analyzed the macroeconomic effects of US AI patents from 1980 to 2019. The researchers concluded “AI innovation is found to increase industrial production, compress consumer prices, and boost the labor market in terms of employment, hours worked, and salaries.” This positive effect on employment even occurred in “even in highly AI-exposed sectors.” However, they also found that AI innovation adversely affected earners in the bottom half of the income distribution.

Currently, few US companies have totally embraced AI. In March of 2024, the US Government published the results of a survey which captures AI usage in businesses. Then, around 5.4% of companies utilized AI, which is expected to rise by the end of 2024. Of those companies that use AI technology, around 85% of them said AI replaced a small number of tasks, and 94.6% of companies reported no change in employment.

AI Job Exposure

Certain occupations are more exposed to AI than others. According to data from Pew Research in 2023, “19% of American workers were in jobs that are the most exposed to AI, in which the most important activities may either be replaced or assisted by AI.” And the jobs with the highest exposure to AI were heled by those with a college education. For example, Pew identified budget analysts and technical writers as having high AI exposure. On the flipside, barbers, childcare workers, and firefighters all have low exposure to AI.

Pew also found that “workers seem more hopeful than concerned about the impact of AI on their jobs,” including 32% of IT workers who said it will help them in their job. A recent Gallup survey concurred. “The percentage of those who believe AI is more harmful than helpful has decreased nine percentage points in the past year, from 40% to 31%.”