As discussed on The Drew Mariani Show with guest KJ Smith, a new report from the Social Security Administration has some troubling data. They report that by 2032, the Old Age Survivors Insurance fund will be depleted. At that time, the insured will only face a 22% reduction of their benefits, unless Congress acts.

The report places the proximate blame on several factors including fertility and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Last year, the report used a fertility rate of 1.90 children per woman, but revised that number down to 1.75 in this year’s report. Fewer children means fewer workers paying into the system.

The OBBBA, passed in 2025, will also have a negative effect on Social Security revenue, according to the report. The bill adds a “temporary additional standard deduction for taxpayers over age 65,” resulting in lower revenues for Social Security.

Unfortunately, near-term action seems unlikely. President Trump has largely sidestepped the issue altogether, and has promised not to cut entitlements. “The Trump Administration will not cut Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid benefits,” according to a press release from the Administration last year.

It doesn’t look like Congress will act anytime soon, either. Smith, the founder of Ethos Logos Investments, told Drew that Congress is likely to keep “kicking the can down the road.”

Prolonged waiting only hurts the most vulnerable. As a Catholic, Smith believes in the preferential option for the poor. And, the eventual 22% reduction in benefits would disproportionately hurt those who rely heavily on Social Security. While Smith does not think Social Security is a good retirement program, he does believe that as a society, it’s good to have a social safety net for those “that can’t take care of themselves.”

The Debt Problem

In addition to its solvency problem, Social Security and entitlements are contributors to America’s debt problem. Kevin D. Williamson, national correspondent at The Dispatch, says that at some point the government will need a combination of entitlement reform, taxes, and a reduction of defense spending. “There is no balanced budget without major entitlement reform, but entitlement reform on its own will not be sufficient: There will have to be large cuts to defense spending and other programs or a large tax increase,” he writes.

Excessive government debt, like unreformed entitlements, harms the most vulnerable in society. In an article published by the UK outlet Catholic Social Thought, the authors point out debt contributes to the structures of sin in society, “Ultimately, it could be said that government debt creates an occasion of sin in which virtuous behaviour becomes difficult.”

Listen to The Drew Mariani Show weekdays 2-5pm CT. Download the Relevant Radio App here.