Ukraine is at a turning point in its war with Russia. That’s according to a new report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). “Open data on Russia’s battlefield performance indicates that the character of the war is shifting in favor of Ukrainian forces, at least for now,” the report said.
Russia, according to the ISW, has been losing ground over the past several months. However the ISW notes, that does “not inherently mean that Ukrainian forces liberated that amount of territory.”
Ukraine, though, has gained a drone advantage. That, combined with stopping Russian advances, “may nevertheless mark the beginning of a new phase of the war,” the ISW reported.
Over the weekend, Ukrainian drones struck areas of St. Petersburg, Russia. According to the Wall Street Journal, “The attacks hit Russian naval arsenals and a naval base in the town of Kronstadt just west of St. Petersburg.” Additional strikes last Wednesday hit an area just miles from an economic conference hosted by Vladimir Putin.
The Ukrainian offensive operation in St. Petersburg comes days after a deadly Russian drone attack in Kyiv. That attack included “656 attack drones and 73 missiles of various types at our people,” President Zelenskyy said on X.
In response to the attacks, Zelenskyy called on President Trump for additional assistance. “Assistance from the United States in supplying missiles for Patriot systems is absolutely necessary,” he wrote on X.
Weapons Needs
Last summer, the United States stopped selling weapons directly to Ukraine, and instead pivoted to selling them to NATO as an intermediary. “We’re sending weapons to NATO, and NATO is paying for those weapons, 100%,” Trump said last year.
The move was touted by Vice-President J.D. Vance. “It’s one of the things I’m proudest of in this administration,” he said.
The ISW believes Ukraine needs more weapons now. “Ukraine’s international partners thus have a rare and temporary opportunity to help Ukraine exploit favorable battlefield dynamics while Ukraine has the upper hand,” the report says.
How the War Ends
One Russian expert believes the war will only end by military means. “This war does not have non military solution,” Andrei Illarionov told Drew Mariani.
Illarionov, Senior Analyst for Russian and European Affairs at the Center for Security Policy, used to work for Vladimir Putin in the early 2000s. The Russian expert told Drew that Putin has been saying Ukraine is not a real country for 25 years.
“He cannot overcome this idea,” Illarionov told Drew.